Notes On Nuclear Deterrence
- When Pakistan tried to seek nuclear umbrella from USA, France, Britain after the Indian nuclear explosion in 1974, every one apologised and Pakistan was left to face Indian threat single- handedly.
- After the collapse of Pakistan Army in East Pakistan and the debacle in West Pakistan, Pakistan army’s relative position vis-a-vis India further deteriorated. Although during “the last 23 years, re-organisation and re-structuring of the army has taken place, yet in conventional weapons Pakistan is at a grave disadvantage, even for a defensive war. According to reliable estimates, Indian military forces are 3-4 times larger as far as army is concerned; in respect of Air Force Indian strength is 5-6 times larger, while in Navy they out number Pakistan 11:1. In this situation Pakistan needs some, non- conventional deterrence for its security and defence.
- Alhamdolillah, Pakistan has attained nuclear capability which is the chief security deterrence, and because of that it was possible to avoid Indian aggression during the last 8 years.
- Under U.S. pressure Pakistan succumbed to capping its nuclear programme in May, 1990. The situation is at a standstill today.
- Now the American pressure is to first force Pakistan to open its nuclear facility to international inspection; secondly to roll back whatever capabilities have been acquired and finally destroy whatever potential exists! This was the target of the Talbot mission. It seems, according to the joint communique, that the government has agreed to these in principle, although refused to proceed unilaterally.
- In this situation it has become imperative for all political Parties and patriotic elements to forget their differences on other issues and formulate a firm national policy on nuclear deterrence with complete consensus. This alone would safeguard against pressure
from outside and weakness from within.
The All Parties Conference held in Karachi on May 7, 1994:
- Strongly affirms that effective presence of nuclear deterrence is the only safeguard in security and defence against the present circumstances to national external aggression;
- Resolves that capping/freezing enforced in 1990 is bound to reduce the effectiveness of Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence in the medium and long run and would also adversely affect our relative deterrent position vis-a-vis India, along with adversely affecting research and technological developments and innovations in the field of research, as also effectiveness of the delivery systems. There is no justification for continuing this arbitrary freeze, and the Conference demands defreeze and de-capping of the nuclear programme.
- Declares that the people of Pakistan would not tolerate any surrender to American and other pressures and ask the government to categorically refuse any form of inspection, roll back or destruction of existing or future capabilities;
- Declares that the only reasonable and honourable course open to Pakistan and others is global de-nuclearisation. While we are prepared to negotiate regional de-nuclearisation but the interests of China – our closest friend – are equally important to us and also the threat from Israel to the whole Arab and Muslim world cannot be ignored. As such, any unilateral de-nuclearisation would be suicidal and merely regional arrangement would be incomplete and ineffective. Pakistan should, therefore, stand firm against all foreign pressure and should take initiative towards achieving global de-nuclearisation, so that the hegemony of a few great powers could be avoided. Pakistan should be accepted as a nuclear power in the same manner as is the case of India, Israel, South Africa and Brazil.
The conference further resolves that all political parties should mobilize public opinion in support of this stand and ensure that Pakistan’s security and defence are not compromised under external pressure.
Summing up by Senator Prof Khurshid Ahmad – Seminar on “NPT, Pakistan and the US Pressure” held at the Institute of Policy Studies, Islamabad on 18th Dec 1994.
- The free flow of technology and its politically unhampered transfers, adaption and development is an inalienable right of all sovereign states and any effort on the part of the USA and other Western countries to consolidate and perpetuate their monopoly on certain technologies is not only discriminatory, unethical, anti-development and an infringement on the sovereign rights of the Third World and Islamic countries but is also frought with the danger of an effective mechanism dividing the world into “first class” and “second class” states, sowing the seeds of future rivalries, confrontations, and wars.
- In view of the security imperatives, further sensitivised by the end of cold war, India-China rapprochement, ever-escalating Indian atrocities in the State of Jammu and Kashmir and the enhanced Indian threat to the very security, sovereignty and solidarity of Pakistan, there is a national near-consensus on the need of self-reliance in defence through maintenance and enhancement of nuclear deterrence. Any effort to freeze, cap, roll back or opening of nuclear establishment for inspection in any form, intrusive or non-intrusive, under US pressure would not only be a violation of the independence and sovereignty of the country but a veritable threat to its very existence. Pakistan must maintain its principled position on the nuclear issue and remain firm in the face of external pressure to preserve, protect and enhance its command over the nuclear technology.
- Pakistan must also diversify its sources for conventional defence requirements, seriously make efforts to fulfill its defence needs, particularly in strengthening its air force, by purchases from Russia, Central Asia, Europe and Latin America. Dependence on the USA must be reduced.
- Mobilize world opinion, particularly of the Islamic World, to obligate the USA to fulfill its commercial commitments about defence supplies, particularly the delivery of F-16 aircrafts, withdrawal of Pakistan-specific and highly discriminatory Pressler Amendment and perusal of a uniform global policy on nuclear non-prolification and disarmament.
- Pakistan’s nuclear policy, as developed and preserved during the 1970’s and 1980’s must be preserved deligently and any aberration made in 1989/1990 must be corrected and redressed. Pakistan Government is warned against any concession to the USA., about which serious apprehensions have been created by the sudden US interest in the energy sector and frequent visits of certain key- persons of the US defence establishment despite all cessation of military cooperation, trade in defence equipment and total stoppage of economic and military aid from the United States to Pakistan. The forthcoming visit of the US Secretary of Defence on 7th January 1995 is being seen by the people in this context.
- There is an urgent need to pool the resources of the Islamic Ummah to organise research and development of appropriate defence technologies and defence production on the basis of collective self-reliance to ensure the security and effective defence of the Muslim World and reduce its dependence on the outside world.